The Weather Thread!

[timmyb]

Big thunderstorm just broken out here.

[newbs16]

Originally Posted by timmyb

Big thunderstorm just broken out here.

where are you from?

[timmyb]

Just West of Bristol.It came and went pretty quick.I don't know why I said it was big, small would have been a more accurate description.I always panic if there's a storm.

[Generation Erm]

it was really warm today even thought it was overcast and rained. its supposed to be even warmer tomorrow.

[Olly.]

When's the snow coming

[Caribou]

Originally Posted by Ollyh

When's the snow coming

I went in the pound shop today and there was Christmas stuff everywhere

[Mental Elf]

Mild for the time of year init?

Temps set to start falling from next week though looking at the ensembles, good agreement also.

[Mental Elf]

For a bit of fun not seen this for a little while!

[Mental Elf]

Looks like a lot of rain to come in the next week this chart is ending on the 23rd October with 130mm (5 inches) of rain in places I highlighted the key areas in red although it didn't need it.



Also the anniversary of the great storm of 1987 today. Don't remember it as I was only 1, but I know a few people who remember it well!

[Mental Elf]

Interesting from the Met Office to put a warning out already for high winds for Monday, worded quite strongly also.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24654390

The Met Office has warned that a storm forecast for Monday could cause disruption in the south of England.

An amber alert for wind has been issued and there is also concern that heavy rain could cause flooding.

The Met Office said the public in the affected area "should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures" caused by strong winds.

There is uncertainty about the timing of the storm at this stage.

Colin Seddon from the BBC Weather Centre said it "is certainly the worst storm we've seen this year".

He said there is potential for gusts of wind over 80mph, especially on exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent.

Rain warning
Northern England, the Midlands, southern England and Wales have also been issued with a yellow warning for rain on Monday.

Yellow alerts are the lowest level of the three warnings.

The Met Office said people in those areas should "be aware of the potential for surface water flooding" because of the rain.

The Met Office's chief forecaster said: "A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday.

"This is expected to run north-eastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks.

"There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in south-westerly winds ahead of the low and west to north-westerly winds behind it."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24655853

I shall wait for the 12z updates and have a gander my self and I shall be back with my view.

[Mental Elf]

Originally Posted by Rufus

^
or as the Daily Express puts it;

but they are a bit OTT about weather at the Express(I hope!)

They are very OTT they give them sort of headlines every weather event one day they may get it right by just how many headlines they are putting out and by luck!

[Mental Elf]

Just went over the 12z weather models and for the GFS most of the wind's hit the south coast and East Anglia ECM has the low much further north bringing the midlands in to play. Won't know the exact path of the low until Saturday evening most likely and even then it could change. With the low deepening as fast as it does I would not rule out a sting jet (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet) quite rare I have only seen two I think! On radar the cloud should look like something below. Not sure what year that was.



Still there is a chance this might still miss us.

[timmyb]

Any more news on this?I'll be driving a high sided vehicle on Sunday night, they can blow over when the wind speed hits about 70mph.Falling trees are also a worry especially as the leaves are still mostly on them.

[Mental Elf]

^ I would stay off the roads if you can it looks dangerous at the moment from tonight's output. Waiting til tomorrow to see if we can nail the track of the centre of the low, if things carry on the way they are I think we might see an upgrade to a red warning at some point from the met office. Flash flooding will certainly be an issue also in places also with the amount of rain is coming with the system in a short amount of time.

Kent area looks like it could take the worse of it from tonight's run with mean speeds of 60 knots (70mph) not to sure what it would be gusting at around 95mph at a guess, but the whole of the south is at risk.



There is still time for this low to miss us though no one really knows what is going to happen just yet.

@timmyb Keep to Points West and BBC Bristol for the Forecast and local updates. Ian Fergusson our local forecaster is really good and is doing the weather over the weekend he told me earlier so that's always a bonus in him I trust!

[timmyb]

Thanks.I'll decide whether I'm going to be "ill" on Sunday according to Saturday's forecast.

[Mental Elf]

I suggest if anyone has any glass garden tables or trampolines to turn them upside down so the updraft doesn't get under them and lift them to down the next street! This morning outputs are still looking scary! Still, track of low is uncertain and could miss us.

[Mental Elf]

Issued this morning,

[Mental Elf]

Latest from the Met Office,

Dates
Issued at:
1153 on Sat 26 Oct 2013

Valid from:
0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

Valid to:
2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

Warning

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding, while the winds will lead to some very large waves around our coasts.

There remains some uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales during Monday, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of 60-80 mph quite widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in the southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it.

20 to 40 mm of rain may fall within 6 to 9 hours, leading to localised flooding, especially where drainage is impeded by wind-blown debris.

This warning will be updated Sunday morning.

One step away from a red warning now.

Also the low has now been named, say hello to Christian..

[Mental Elf]

[Mental Elf]

The latest (GFS) model run has no storm what so ever! That would be egg on the face of the people at the met office if this is to be correct, could be a outlier though, going to wait for the ensembles.

[Mr. Spaceman]

Well I'd be very disappointed if it didn't happen because I'm pretty excited about it too

[Medea]

Well it's a tiny bit windy here in Colchester...

[Mental Elf]

Issued at:
1136 on Sun 27 Oct 2013

Valid from:
0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

Valid to:
1200 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

Warning

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across England and Wales early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding, while the winds will lead to some very large waves around our coasts.

There remains slight uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low as well as the northern limit of the strongest winds. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies. The public should also consider adjusting travel plans.

This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time.

The public are advised to monitor the website for possible further updates.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, across England and Wales during Monday, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. We are expecting gusts of 60-70 mph widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in the southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it.

20 to 40 mm of rain may fall within 6 to 9 hours, leading to localised flooding, especially where drainage is impeded by wind-blown debris.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...&regionName=uk

[Scott03]

Is this going to be our "Frankenstorm", since it is coming close to Halloween?

[Duke of Prunes]

Meh. I'm not even slightly worried about this.

My town survived the ~120 mph winds in 1987 (and it got the full force of them as well, being one of the highest points in the South East) with nothing more than a few uprooted trees (a couple of cars and buildings got crushed – nobody was hurt) and some sheep escaping from a field. Apparently my family slept through it (I probably would have as well if I was alive then).

[Mental Elf]

Latest surface analyses has the low down to 996mb you can see it here (http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map....ng=en&area=eur) and keep track of it as it updates every hour it's already a few mb's deeper than what the weather models were predicting going to be a interesting few hours I think.

[Scott03]

Originally Posted by Logic

Latest surface analyses has the low down to 996mb you can see it here (http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map....ng=en&area=eur) and keep track of it as it updates every hour it's already a few mb's deeper than what the weather models were predicting going to be a interesting few hours I think.

Interesting. On one of the weather forums this morning the people there were talking about the models downgrading this, but we shall see.

[Mental Elf]

Yeah they started to downgrade last night not sure what is going to happen at the moment to be honest!

Originally Posted by Scott85

Interesting. On one of the weather forums this morning the people there were talking about the models downgrading this, but we shall see.

[The Chosen One]

I wonder if this is going to be another Michael Fish moment, but in reverse?

Having said that, it is definitely a bit windy in the capital.

[The Chosen One]

Originally Posted by Tabitha

I think it is exciting. I love extreme weather, and very rough seas.

You should move to Death Valley, Oklahoma etc...You get that extreme weather every year or so, and much more extreme than the UK lol.