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  #541  
Old 14th February 2014, 22:09
Mental Elf Mental Elf is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Never seen wind as strong as this lasting so long here, someones shed just blew across the road it's in a right mess, but lucky it's no flooding.. Unlike the poor people across Somerset and other parts of the UK
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  #542  
Old 27th March 2014, 15:16
Caribou Caribou is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Some great thunder and lightning here this morning
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  #543  
Old 4th April 2014, 20:25
daveysurfy daveysurfy is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Lovely weather here in Devon today

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  #544  
Old 19th May 2014, 23:30
Craig. Craig. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Thunder and lightning here, I think lightning must of struck the tree in my garden! You know something dire is about to happen when your internet cuts out! There was literally no time between the flash and the thunder, so loud my window made a very odd noise, I'm a little bit traumatised to say the least! never been a fan of storms to be honest
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  #545  
Old 19th May 2014, 23:38
Caribou Caribou is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoiccraig
Thunder and lightning here, I think lightning must of struck the tree in my garden! You know something dire is about to happen when your internet cuts out! There was literally no time between the flash and the thunder, so loud my window made a very odd noise, I'm a little bit traumatised to say the least! never been a fan of storms to be honest
eek!
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  #546  
Old 19th May 2014, 23:46
Craig. Craig. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

It was terrible! Haha. I'm actually really curious to know how close it was to my house. I'm tempted to say it's gone now but I feel like that's tempting fate I keep seeing people saying they love thunderstorms, what is there to love?! Loud noises? Sudden bright flashes? Bizzare people but each to their own
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  #547  
Old 19th May 2014, 23:48
Caribou Caribou is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

I love thunderstorms but I don't want the lightning anywhere near me
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  #548  
Old 19th May 2014, 23:51
Craig. Craig. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

I'd be more okay with them if they'd stay a mile or so away! wherever that was, was too close for comfort!
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  #549  
Old 19th May 2014, 23:52
Caribou Caribou is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoiccraig
I'd be more okay with them if they'd stay a mile or so away! wherever that was, was too close for comfort!
Might be a big hole in your garden tomorrow
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  #550  
Old 19th May 2014, 23:55
Olly. Olly. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoiccraig
It was terrible! Haha. I'm actually really curious to know how close it was to my house. I'm tempted to say it's gone now but I feel like that's tempting fate I keep seeing people saying they love thunderstorms, what is there to love?! Loud noises? Sudden bright flashes? Bizzare people but each to their own
Well the lighting can be spectacular

Though of course, you don't enjoy it as much when its near to your house, and its always utterly terrifying to be woken up by a giant crack above your house
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  #551  
Old 20th May 2014, 00:01
Craig. Craig. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Haha that's true! I'm more okay with sheet lightning! But fork lightning i can't even look at I never get woken up by storms! I always wake up before them for some reason and falling asleep during one is an impossibility I still can't believe how close it was! Pretty sure i could actually hear the electricity, if that's possible
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  #552  
Old 21st May 2014, 20:33
Mental Elf Mental Elf is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Been nice weather init..
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  #553  
Old 21st May 2014, 20:40
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

It's looking fine here.


That's all I have to say.
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  #554  
Old 21st May 2014, 20:57
Mikei Mikei is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Logic
Been nice weather init..

Today has been almost perfect, not too hot with a cooling breeze.
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  #555  
Old 21st May 2014, 23:24
Caribou Caribou is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Logic
Been nice weather init..
No. It was too hot in ASDA today
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  #556  
Old 22nd May 2014, 15:57
Olly. Olly. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Its storm after storm here at the moment, and the thunder is really getting loud now and has been for 20 minutes!
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  #557  
Old 22nd May 2014, 16:23
Olly. Olly. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Look at this photo of the Shard getting struck by lightning

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  #558  
Old 22nd May 2014, 19:23
Craig. Craig. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olly.
Its storm after storm here at the moment, and the thunder is really getting loud now and has been for 20 minutes!
We had it earlier on today, Luckily I went down to the polling station about 20 minutes before the storm came


Quote:
Originally Posted by Olly
Look at this photo of the Shard getting struck by lightning

The stuff of nightmares!
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  #559  
Old 22nd May 2014, 19:29
goldenjuniper goldenjuniper is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

^^ah but was it lightning going down or lizard people escaping up?
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  #560  
Old 22nd May 2014, 19:30
Olly. Olly. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Hardly a cloud in the sky now
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  #561  
Old 22nd May 2014, 19:55
Z. Z. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

It's pouring it down here; just the way I like it

The sun, blue skies, and white clouds are all overrated in my opinion.
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  #562  
Old 22nd May 2014, 19:59
MissyP. MissyP. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Its cloudy and cold outside right now.
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  #563  
Old 5th June 2014, 17:14
Mental Elf Mental Elf is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Could be a big storm in a few days, certainly potential there CAPE in excess of 2000+ j/kg, getting in to supercell territory really.
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  #564  
Old 5th June 2014, 17:24
Olly. Olly. is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

^ Hopefully it will be as spectacular as the one we had last July, it was incredible, literally hours of the most spectacular lightning I've ever seen!
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  #565  
Old 5th June 2014, 18:00
Mental Elf Mental Elf is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

^ You could be in the prime location also! The one you had last July was most likely an MCS (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesosca...vective_system)
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  #566  
Old 6th June 2014, 14:05
Mental Elf Mental Elf is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!



Quote:
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 06 Jun 2014 06:00 to Sat 07 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 06 Jun 2014 06:15
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 was issued for W France and S England for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation, large hail and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issed for E Spain, S and Central France mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for W-most Russia, parts of Belarus and the Ukraine mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for E Romania, E Bulgaria and N Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for waterspouts.

SYNOPSIS

Between a pronounced cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean near 45°N and a weak ridge over Central Europe, a deep Southwesterly flow with strong warm air advection spreads over Spain, France, England, BeNeLux and Germany. This configuration will open up a prolonged severe thunderstorm episode in these countries.

Further East, a compact upper-level low slowly moves from Denmark into Southern Sweden. Rather low geopotential connects it with a second upper-level low over Turkey. An anticyclone sits over Western Russia.

DISCUSSION

E Spain, France, England

Under strong insolation and a capping inversion created by the warm air advection, rapid diurnal heating and moistening of low-levels can be expected. Forecast models agree on the buildup of CAPE on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg in France till the evening with realistically looking surface dewpoints of 16-18°C. The instability maximum is expected in the Northern foreland of the Pyrenees. Deep-layer shear strengthens to 20-25 m/s, and at least slightly enhanced shear and helicity will also be present at lower levels. The conditions look prime that any forming storm can turn into a well-developed supercell. Main uncertainties will be if convective initiation can be achieved with such a strong cap, and if forming updrafts can grow persistent enough to withstand entrainment of very dry mid-level air.

Diurnal timing of large-scale lift is adverse to widespread storm development: after a first short-wave departs eastward until 09 UTC, peak daytime heating hours will rather see large-scale subsidence over most of Spain and France. Only in the evening hours, stronger vorticity maxima will start to overspread the Bay of Biscay and Western France. Though their exact timing and placement is still uncertain, their contribution to lift will likely erode and finally break the cap. The most plausible scenario is that elevated storms will form over the Bay of Biscay in the evening and move northward into Western France (Pays de la Loire, Bretagne) overnight. Severe wind gusts will be the main risk. Other kinds of severe weather (excessive precipitation, large hail and tornadoes) are also possible, but do more critically depend on the question if storms will be able to root down to the surface. If they succeed, they can fully benefit from moist low-level air and further improving wind profiles overnight.
Late in the forecast period, elevated storms will likely extend into Southern England with a slowly decreasing severe weather risk.

Further East and South, isolated storms may form over orographic features of France and Eastern Spain between noon and sunset, but will struggle to still penetrate the strong cap as soon as the detach from their points of initiation. If they succeed, supercells with a risk of large hail and severe downbursts are forecast, an even an isolated extreme event is possible.
Relatively highest probability for initiation seem to exist over Southwestern France in the wake of the Pyrenees, where Northeasterly upslope flow meets with Northwesterly onshore flow from the Bay of Biscay. This region will also see a second chance for initiation overnight when an outflow boundary will move onshore in the wake of the aforementioned MCS. However, with slim to none precipitation signals in all models, confidence in convective initiation is not high enough for a level 2 despite the impressive thermodynamic and kinematic setup.
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  #567  
Old 6th June 2014, 15:31
Mental Elf Mental Elf is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Quote:
Last Update: 1300UTC Friday 6th June 2014
SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #22
ISSUED: 1300UTC FRIDAY 6TH JUNE 2014

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - WALES, ENGLAND, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND AND CHANNEL ISLANDS
LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - WALES, ENGLAND AND CHANNEL ISLANDS
STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - WALES, ENGLAND AND CHANNEL ISLANDS
BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES - WALES, ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 2100UTC FRIDAY 6TH UNTIL 2300UTC SATURDAY 7TH JUNE 2014

SATURATED CONTINENTAL PLUME OVERSPREADING THE UK AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST, PROMOTING STRONG INSTABILITY

DISCUSSION:
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEPLY SATURATED PLUME OF AIR MOVES NORTH OVER THE UK FROM LATE TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD DESTABILISATION GENERATING ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF THE MAINLAND THROUGH TO EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN PW VALUES APPROACHING 3CM, HEAVY AND POSSIBLY PERSISTENT RAIN WILL CAUSE A LOCALISED FLOODING RISK FOR URBAN AREAS AND STEEP RIVER CATCHMENTS.

AS THE CLOUD CLEARS DURING SATURDAY MORNING, SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS WALES AND CENTRAL ENGLAND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF UP TO 1500J/KG CAPE WITH APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KTS INCREASING TO OVER 50KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MIXES EASTWARD. THOUGH STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, ANY SUSTAINED AND DOMINANT STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, STRONG DOWNDRAFT DRIVEN GUSTS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADOES GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF 150M2/S2 AND EFFECTS. GIVEN THAT PW VALUES REMAIN SEASONABLY HIGH, THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE INTENSE PRECIP CORES, CAPABLE OF 15-20MM OF ACCUMULATED PRECIP IN A SHORT SPACE OF TIME.

FROM CENTRAL ENGLAND AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON, THE MAXIMISED EML OVERSPREADING THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WILL POTENTIALLY GREATLY INCREASE CAPE VALUES AND LAPSE RATES LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY GTR LONDON AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR THE CAPPING LAYER TO BE BREACHED. IN SUCH CASES, STRONG CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE HAIL, STRONG GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. THESE STORMS MAY WELL BECOME CHOKED AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY, THOUGH SUFFICIENT INITIATIONS WILL OCCUR THAT MOST AREAS MAY SEE A RISK AT SOME POINT. GIVEN POTENTIALLY BACKBUILDING STORM BEHAVIOUR, SUCCESSIVE PRECIP CORES MAY CAUSE HIGHLY LOCALISED FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

THERE ALSO EXISTS A RISK FOR THE SOUTH COAST, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF, OF ADVECTED CONTINENTAL STORMS. THESE WILL LIKELY BE MATURE AND MAY REINVIGORATE AFTER THE CHANNEL, ALSO PROMOTING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, STRONG GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.
http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html
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  #568  
Old 6th June 2014, 16:35
Mental Elf Mental Elf is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

Cells already popping up it's starting! :-) Good luck to anyone who want's to see some lightning. :-)
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  #569  
Old 6th June 2014, 21:03
Mental Elf Mental Elf is offline
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Default Re: The Weather Thread!

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

Cell off the coast of Cornwall just exploded in to life.
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  #570  
Old 6th June 2014, 22:24
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